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Experiment and artifact chain

An experiment is useful when another person or agent can determine exactly what happened without trusting the author.

Artifact Required content
Observation Concrete repository pain, pinned source or measured symptom
Hypothesis Directional, falsifiable claim written before measurement
Baseline Current quality, cost, latency or change surface
Protocol Fixed corpus/workload, exact commands, limits and stop conditions
Raw evidence Outputs, usage, hashes and environment; secrets excluded
Verdict Confirmed, refuted or inconclusive against predeclared criteria
Promotion receipt Accountable authority, exact evidence and next reversible step

For classical software engineering, prefer defect rate, changed-file surface, deterministic test setup, p50/p95 latency, recovery time and operational burden.

For agentic systems, add accepted-result quality, false positives, calibration, escalation, retries, provider-specific input/cached/output tokens and dollars. Do not sum token counts from unlike tokenizers and call the total a saving.

The reviewer tries to invalidate the conclusion: leakage in the corpus, a cheaper deterministic alternative, shifted human cost, missing failure cases, or an artifact that does not match the tested revision.

Exercise: define a 50% token-saving experiment

Fix one corpus and downstream model. Compare calling it on every case with calling it only after a Jev gate. Keep the quality gate identical. Reject the hypothesis on any false authority-sensitive support, or when retries and human review erase the dollar saving.